The Toumba Cauldron: Where Germany Seek Revenge and Redemption
Three days ago, in this very stadium, Greece led the Netherlands 2-0 and were denied victory only in the 89th minute. Seven days earlier, the same Greece side stunned the football world with a 1-0 win in Augsburg — the first Greek victory over Germany in history, after eleven meetings. Now, with Group A2 entering its second half, there is no room left for caution: Greece 7 points, Netherlands 5, Germany 4, Serbia 0. Jürgen Klopp’s men must win to keep their hopes of top spot alive. Ahead of them: a sold-out 28,000-seat cauldron — and a coach who calls it exactly what it is: “the next step in our development.”
I. Context: The Augsburg Debt and a Ticket to Survival
The evening of 27 September in Augsburg remains an open wound. A Germany side in Klopp’s debut — short on preparation time, with “good phases, but not long enough” in his own words — fell 1-0 to a Dimitris Kourbelis strike in the 74th minute, assisted by Christos Tzolis, the ball deflecting off Kimmich. For the first time in eleven encounters (seven German wins, three draws), Greece tasted victory. “To win games like this, you have to suffer,” said coach Ivan Jovanović afterwards — and his players suffered in the truest sense, earning a historic three points.
But a week can change a great deal. On the night of 1 October, Germany beat Serbia 2-0 with an almost entirely new “second XI” — five debutants, goals from Tom Bischof (39′) and Florian Wirtz (61′), and above all: Klopp’s first win. He summed up the new philosophy in two sentences at the press briefing on the morning of 3 October (via SID): “Das kennt ja jeder: Wenn du ein Spiel gewonnen hast, traust du dir eher zu, auch das nächste zu gewinnen, als wenn du eines verloren hast. Das menschliche Hirn denkt so.” — “Everyone knows: when you’ve won a game, you believe you can win the next one more than when you’ve lost. That’s how the human brain works.” With the caveat: “Ich möchte noch keine Konstanz ausrufen oder versprechen. Aber wir werden es am Sonntag wieder versuchen.” — “I don’t want to declare or promise consistency yet. But on Sunday we will try again.”
Across the pitch, Greece remain unbeaten and top of the group. The 2-2 draw with the Netherlands at Toumba on 1 October showcased their “new level”: 2-0 up at half-time (Ioannidis 23′, Masouras 45+2′), pegged back in the 59th and 89th minutes, yet standing firm against a heavily favoured Netherlands side — in Kostas Tsimikas’s words: “We are unbeaten and we are top of the group, so we have to build on that… In the end, that point we earned may prove to be very valuable.” Striker Fotis Ioannidis was even bolder: “We definitely have moved up a level.”
One detail worth pondering: for all their table-topping form, Greece are surprisingly poor at home — just one win in their last five home matches (one draw, three defeats, per sportytrader). Toumba may be a fortress of emotion, but not yet of results. And that is the crack Germany’s Mentalität must exploit.
II. Tactical Flashpoints: Six Battles That Will Decide the Night in Thessaloniki
1. Toumba — the cauldron, and the next step under pressure
28,000 tickets sold out, only 1,400 Germany supporters among them. On 1 October, the “deafening support” (AP’s words) at Toumba powered Greece to press the Netherlands on level terms for an entire half. Klopp doesn’t shy away from it — he calls it a “hitzige Atmosphäre” (a heated atmosphere) and declares: “Das wird stressig — aber der nächste Entwicklungsschritt. Wir lernen und performen ja unter Stress.” — “It will be stressful — but that’s the next step in our development. We learn and perform under stress.” For a youthful Germany side (a predicted XI with plenty of U23 names), this is the first genuine Mentalität (mentality) test: can the machine start up inside a hostile furnace?
2. Greece without Tzolis — which flank becomes the main front?
Greece’s biggest loss: Christos Tzolis — the architect of the winning goal in the first leg — limped off with a hamstring injury in the 18th minute against the Netherlands, faces around 15–20 days out per the Greece medical staff’s initial assessment, and has returned to London for further checks with Arsenal (who have yet to set an official timeline). His replacement, Giorgos Masouras, scored the 2-0 against the Dutch — a warning in itself: Greece aren’t weaker, they’ve merely changed weapons. Masouras is likely to start on the left wing (in Tzolis’s place) directly against Germany’s right-back Ridle Baku — a duel of pace and stamina, with Greece captain Kostas Tsimikas (Liverpool) overlapping in support. On the other flank, Germany’s left-back David Raum must cope with Konstantinos Karetsas. Both wings — where Germany need width to stretch the Greek block — promise genuine flashpoints.
3. Cracking the deep block: Greece needed only 29% of the ball
The most frightening number from Greece 2-2 Netherlands (per ForzaPitch): Greece held just 29% possession, attempting 8 shots to the Dutch 19 — and nearly won. That is Jovanović’s identity: suffer, stay organised and disciplined, then strike on the counter when the opponent loses patience. Klopp himself acknowledged it at the press conference: “Wenn wir gut spielen, dann wird Griechenland uns im tiefen Block verteidigen müssen. Dass sie das gut machen, haben wir in Augsburg mitbekommen.” (“If we play well, Greece will have to defend us in a deep block. We saw in Augsburg how well they do that.”) Germany’s problem? The Serbia win exposed an old illness not yet cured: 32 shots, xG ranging from 2.79 to 3.9 across different sources (model estimates, not official UEFA data), just 2 goals. Against a Greece side even more disciplined than Serbia, profligacy like that Munich night could prove costly — especially since the first-leg defeat also came from a single lapse in concentration. Ruthlessness in finishing: that is tonight’s order.
4. The young midfield vs Kourbelis — the hero of the first leg
Germany’s midfield is likely to be Aleksandar Pavlović anchoring — his specialist role from the Serbia game — with Tom Bischof and captain Florian Wirtz ahead. Facing them: Dimitris Kourbelis, the very man who scored the only goal in Augsburg, a defensive midfielder who reads the game superbly. The clash between the technique of Germany’s trio and Kourbelis’s cunning and experience will decide who owns the middle — and in a match where Greece are happy to cede possession, the ability of Wirtz and Bischof to “read” space is the key that picks the lock.
Klopp confirmed it outright at Toumba: Pavlović will start tomorrow night — “I told him just before the press conference that he can’t talk his way out of the team” (a chuckling Klopp). Taking Pavlović to the presser only underlines it: a rare instance of Klopp locking in personnel before kickoff. Pavlović defined his own role crisply: “Ich möchte meine Qualitäten dem Team geben, das ganze Spiel kontrollieren und defensiv voll pressen, in die Zweikämpfe gehen.” — “I want to give my qualities to the team, control the whole game, press hard defensively and get stuck into duels.” On the trio that played together against Serbia, he added: “Es hat unglaublich viel Spaß gemacht, mit den beiden zu zocken… Flo hat jede Freiheiten und wir versuchen, ihm die Bälle zu geben.” — “Playing with those two (Bischof and Wirtz) was unbelievable fun… Flo has total freedom and we try to get him the ball.”
5. Two personal milestones: Wirtz captains from the start, Urbig’s second straight start
With Serge Gnabry leaving the camp (DFB confirmed: load management after his thigh injury, replaced by newcomer Felix Keidel), Florian Wirtz — 47 caps, the most in the current squad — is set to captain the side from kick-off for the first time. At 23, after wearing the armband for the second half against Serbia, this is official recognition of the new generation’s leader. In goal, Klopp all but confirmed it at the Toumba press conference: Jonas Urbig starts a second straight match — “Momentan sieht es so aus, als würden wir nicht tauschen.” (“For the moment, it looks like we won’t switch.”) The reason is brutally practical: the other keepers all start regularly for their clubs, while Urbig (Bayern’s backup) does not — “Deswegen machen wir das jetzt so, dass er ein zweites Spiel bekommt.” (“That’s why we’re giving him a second game now.”) And to head off any No. 1 speculation, Klopp added: “Mit dem Nummer-Eins-Status hat das nichts zu tun.” (“This has nothing to do with No. 1 status.”)
6. Press conference at Toumba: the other takeaways
Beyond the two confirmed starters (Urbig in goal, Pavlović anchoring midfield), the press conference on the afternoon of 3 October showed a relaxed but tight-lipped Klopp. On the lineup, he gave nothing more away: “Wir wollen eine Mannschaft auf den Platz bringen, die eine Chance hat, das Spiel zu gewinnen. Wenn man ganz ehrlich ist, hätten alle Spieler im Camp es verdient, zu spielen. Es war eine tolle Atmosphäre und extrem hohe Qualität im Training.” (“We want to put out a team that has a chance to win the game. Honestly, every player in this camp would have deserved to play. The atmosphere was great and the training quality extremely high.”) On the rest of the team selection, he kept his cards close: the media would have to wait until tomorrow. He also revealed the evening plan: “Wir zeigen den Jungs heute Abend die wichtigen Szenen aus dem ersten Spiel gegen Griechenland” (“Tonight we’ll show the lads the key scenes from the first game against Greece”). On captain Kimmich’s absence, Klopp brushed aside all drama: “Keiner, der richtig kicken kann, muss sich sorgen machen… Ich freue mich, dass Jo Kimmich deutscher Nationalspieler ist.” (“Nobody who can really play needs to worry… I’m glad Jo Kimmich is a Germany international.”) Gnabry’s departure, per the ran liveticker, came because he clearly felt the strain in the Serbia game and needs a recovery break before returning to normal training with Bayern. And the afternoon’s funniest moment: asked to compare today’s Greece with the EURO 2004 champions, Pavlović — born in 2004 — could only grin, while Klopp closed with a sung line: “Ohne Otto, wär das nicht passiert…” (“Without Otto, it wouldn’t have happened…”) — a nod to Otto Rehhagel, the architect of the 2004 miracle.
III. Predicted Lineups & Personnel
Germany (4-1-2-3, predicted by SID — updated after the 3/10 press conference): Urbig — Baku, Jeltsch, Anton, Raum — Pavlović — Bischof, Wirtz (C) — Karl, Burkardt, El Mala.
The prediction: the back four — Baku – Anton – Jeltsch – Raum — Wirtz as captain, Lennart Karl (18, Bayern) starting on the right wing in Gnabry’s place, Saïd El Mala on the left, and Jonathan Burkardt up front. In midfield, Pavlović anchoring ahead of the defence is the likeliest setup; Janelt remains the backup option if Klopp wants extra steel against Kourbelis. Notably, Finn Jeltsch (Stuttgart, 20) could also debut at centre-back — with Nico Schlotterbeck sidelined by a right-ankle ligament injury for the whole camp and no replacement called up.
On roles: Pavlović is the anchor in front of defence — the role he thrived in against Serbia — and he must sweep up the spaces Kourbelis and the Greek midfielders lurk in. Bischof, after his first international goal, is expected to continue as the box-to-box engine (a midfielder covering the full pitch, from box to box). Karl on the right is Klopp’s bold gamble: 18 years old, rapid, skilful — the very archetype of the “Jungen Wilden” (young wild ones) he is building around. And El Mala, confident after his assured debut against Serbia, has a first start within reach.
Greece (4-4-2/4-2-3-1, predicted by Sports Mole): Tzolakis; Saliakas, Mavropanos, Retsos, Tsimikas; Karetsas, Kourbelis, Androutsos, Masouras; Pavlidis, Ioannidis.
Jovanović keeps essentially the same core that beat Germany and drew with the Netherlands. Konstantinos Tzolakis (Hull City) has played all 270 minutes across the three matches — a stable last line. The strike pair Pavlidis – Ioannidis are a standing threat to any youthful back line, and Germany’s (potentially featuring debutant Jeltsch at the back) is firmly in their sights. Tsimikas captains the side from left-back, while Masouras — the “super-sub hero” against the Dutch — gets his chance to start in Tzolis’s place.
“I tell him to come out and he says, ‘I’m not coming out.’ … These aren’t qualifiers, they’re the Nations League, first and foremost I wanted to protect the player.”
— Ivan Jovanović, explaining the decision to withdraw Tzolis in the 18th minute against the Netherlands (source: Sport24 via football.london)
IV. Prediction: Discipline Beats Emotion
Every number points to a difficult night for Germany: an unbeaten group leader, a hostile away cauldron, a youthful side short on big-match experience, and an attack that needed 32 shots for 2 goals last time out. But German football was never built on fear — it was built on Mentalität, discipline, and the ability to “performen unter Stress” (perform under stress), in Klopp’s own phrase.
The most plausible script: Greece open with the same fierce pressing they showed against the Netherlands, riding Toumba’s roar through the first 20 minutes. Germany — young but technically gifted in midfield — must survive that storm through organisational discipline, then gradually take control through possession. If goals come, they likely arrive in the second half, as Greek legs tire and space opens behind the advancing defence — precisely the formula Wirtz and Bischof operated against Serbia.
The warning: Greece have proven they need only one moment — a counter, a long-range strike like Kourbelis’s in Augsburg, or a set piece. With Pavlidis and Ioannidis lurking, Germany’s young defence cannot switch off even once. Referee Clément Turpin (France) — who officiated Germany’s 5-0 win over Hungary in September 2024 — will need a cool head amid a “hitzige Atmosphäre”.
Blog prediction: Germany to win 2-1 — a hard-fought victory in true Die Mannschaft fashion: not pretty, but disciplined and full of character. Wirtz marks his first start as captain with a decisive contribution, and Klopp earns a second straight win to truly begin his “process”. But if Germany waste chances like they did in Munich, Toumba is ready to punish — and top spot would drift further away.
What do you think — should Klopp keep faith in the young “second XI”, or is it time to bring the senior players back for this do-or-die clash? Drop your score prediction in the comments!
Related: Germany 2-0 Serbia: Klopp’s first win — the night that set up the trip to Thessaloniki.